Global Environmental Change Research Paper

Research on the human dimensions of global environmental change is concerned with the human causes of change, the consequences of such changes for individuals and societal groups, and the ways in which humans respond to the changes.

The causes include processes like industrialization and urbanization, which themselves are driven by human needs and wants, such as the needs for water, food, and shelter. The impacts include water and food shortages, floods and droughts, health risks, and conflicts about resources. Responses to these changes include adaptation, for example, through planting different crops, and even migration from areas most affected by environmental changes and mitigation, for example, by reducing emissions of gases into the atmosphere.

Individuals and teams carry out research on the human dimensions of global environmental change in many universities and research institutes worldwide.

The range of social science disciplines involved in research related to global environmental change is wide, including political scientists studying the effectiveness of environmental agreements, demographers looking at the links between population growth and environmental change, economists considering the possibilities for delinking economic growth and environmental impacts, anthropologists debating human needs and wants and global environmental change, and scholars looking at the psychological dimensions of global environmental change. In addition, the International Human Dimensions Programme on Global Environmental Change (IHDP) coordinates research at the international level (IGBP IHDP 1999, IHDP 1999a, 1999b, 1999c).

2. The Causes Of Global Environmental Change

As pointed out in the introduction, global environmental change has been taking place throughout the earth’s history, our focus here is on anthropogenic causes. Changes in the global atmosphere (climate change, stratospheric ozone depletion, and acid rain) are a result of emissions of a number of gases into the atmosphere due to a range of human activities. The increasing greenhouse effect, leading to a warming of the earth’s surface and lower atmosphere, is the result of the accumulation of gases including carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, and chlorofluorocarbons in the atmosphere. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has documented these changes. Chlorofluorocarbons are also responsible for stratospheric ozone depletion (WMO 1999). Transboundary acidic pollution is attributed to emissions of sulfur dioxide, nitrogen oxide, and other acidifying emissions (e.g., Soroos 1998).

What are the main human activities that lead to these emissions? In the case of climate change the burning of coal, oil, and natural gas, as well as deforestation and various agricultural and industrial practices are altering the composition of the atmosphere and contributing to climate change. It has been estimated that the use of fossil fuels currently accounts for 80–85 percent of the carbon dioxide being added to the atmosphere (UNEP WMO 1997). Fossil fuels are burned to produce energy used for transportation, manufacturing, heating, cooling, electricity generation, and other applications. Research shows that patterns and environmental impacts of fossil fuel use vary widely by country and national-level consumption varies with technology, population and other factors, such as the level of industrialization. Land use changes, e.g., clearing land for logging, ranching, and agriculture as well as for urban development, also lead to carbon dioxide emissions (e.g., Turner et al. 1990). Over the past several hundred years, deforestation and other land use changes in many countries contributed substantially to atmospheric carbon dioxide increases. Most of the net carbon dioxide emissions from deforestation are currently occurring in tropical regions. The human activities that lead to methane emissions include rice cultivation, cattle and sheep ranching, and creation of landfills. Methane is also emitted during coal mining and oil drilling and by leaky gas pipelines. It is estimated that human activities have increased the concentration of methane in the atmosphere by about 145 percent above what would be present naturally (UNEP WMO 1997).

Chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) have been used in aerosol spray cans, refrigeration, air conditioning, and solvents. However, the production of CFCs is being eliminated as a result of international agreements, in particular the Montreal Protocol signed in 1987 and subsequent amendments agreed to in London (1990) and Copenhagen (1992). Soroos (1998) shows the sharp drop in the production and use of CFCs and other ozone-depleting substances in the 1990s and concludes that the level of stratospheric ozone is likely to reach its lowest level around 2000 and then begin a gradual rise back to its natural level.

The accumulation of gases in the atmosphere that can give rise to climatic change, stratospheric ozone depletion, and acidification is increasingly the result of a wide range of human activities like energy production, agriculture, and transportation. These activities in turn result from the satisfaction of human needs and wants. The topic of ‘needs and wants’ was tackled in detail from a social science perspective by Douglas et al. (1998).

An ongoing debate with regard to the causes of global environmental change is whether population growth in less developed countries is the main cause of environmental change or whether the main factor is the high level of consumption in industrialized countries. As MacKellar et al. (1998) point out, the population-consumption debate has become the focus of the broader debate about equity and fairness, demonstrated, for example, at the UNCED in Rio in 1992. Some case studies have shown that population growth can be correlated with increasing rates of tropical deforestation, while others have shown that population growth need not lead to increasing deforestation, if alternatives to land-clearing are provided.

Demographic research does point to some important trends that will play a role in determining future global environmental change: there will be further population growth, a further tilt towards less industrialized countries in the world distribution of population, and further population aging (MacKellar et al. 1998). Another important trend is urbanization. At the beginning of the twenty-first century, more people will live and work in the urban centers of the world than in rural areas for the first time in history (Board on Sustainable Development 1999). The ‘rush to the cities’ of rural populations in developing countries during the second half of the twentieth century was dramatic. The largest cities of the poorer countries are growing much faster than similar cities in the industrialized world.

In addition to the changes occurring in the global atmosphere, global environmental changes are occurring at the earth’s surface. In recent years the question of biodiversity loss has been on scientific and political agendas. As defined in the UN Framework Convention on Biological Diversity, biodiversity is the diversity of species, genetic material and ecosystems or, more generally, the variability among living organisms. Human activities contribute to the loss of biodiversity in many ways. Studies of the human causes of biodiversity loss have to deal with issues such as cultural beliefs, religious teachings, social history, and property rights. In fact, of course, it is not only the issue of biodiversity that encompasses these factors. These forces also influence many other issues related to global environmental change. There is a large body of environmental ethics literature in particular that deals with such issues (see, for example, Gardner and Stern 1996).

A related issue for global environmental change is that of land use and land cover change. In addition to playing a role in biodiversity loss, land use and land cover change can affect the global climate system through emissions of greenhouse gases (carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide) as well as changes in climatic variables, such as the reflectivity of the earth’s surface. Over the course of human history, land use change has contributed as much to increases of the atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration as fossil fuel combustion has (Meyer et al. 1998). The human activities that can change land cover include sedentary agriculture, shifting cultivation, navigation, water supply, forest plantations, settlements, transportation corridors, mining, and habitat and scenery preservation (Meyer et al. 1998). The study of Kasperson et al. (1995) identified world regions where misuse of land and water resources seriously threatens human wealth and well being in the near to medium term. There has also been considerable progress in recent years on questions such as the social causes of deforestation in areas such as the Amazon River Basin and Southeast Asia and the role of social, political, and economic institutions in land-use decisions (Entwistle et al. 1998).

Recently, advances have been made in combining social science and remote sensing perspectives, techniques, and data (US National Research Council 1998). Studies have shown how remotely sensed and social data can be combined to understand human– environment linkages, especially with regard to land use and land cover changes on the regional level. The combination of social data and remotely sensed data can lead to improved understanding of the consequences of climate variability, including improving famine early warning systems and dealing with serious human health issues.

3. The Human Consequences Of Global Environmental Change

Much of the research on the consequences of global environmental changes has focused on the impacts of climatic change, although there have been some studies of the impacts of stratospheric ozone depletion and acid rain.

In recent years assessments of the impacts of climate change have been carried out under the auspices of the UNEP/WMO Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, which produced reports in 1990 and 1996 (IPCC 1990, 1996). Given uncertainties in both the expected climatic changes (especially when considering the regional or local scale) in the twenty-first century and the calculations of socioeconomic impacts of such changes, the studies of the impacts of climate change do not produce predictions but generally generate plausible scenarios of future impacts.

The IPCC scientific assessment (UNEP /WMO 1997) estimated that the globally averaged surface temperature will increase by 1–3.5 C by the year 2100, with an associated rise of sea level of 15–95 cm. One of the topics that received wide attention after the IPCC report was the potential impact on human health. The report concluded that the projected increase in the duration and frequency of heat waves would be expected to increase mortality rates as a result of heat stress, especially where air conditioning is not available. McMichael et al. (1996) have discussed the general impacts of climate change on human health.

Many studies have looked at the potential impacts of climate change on agricultural production. The 1996 IPCC assessment concluded that it may be possible for global agricultural production to keep pace with increasing demand over the next 50–100 years if adequate adaptations are made, but that there are likely to be difficulties in some regions. The report concluded that there is likely to be an increased risk of famine, particularly in subtropical and tropical semiarid and arid locations.

With more than half of the global human population currently living in coastal areas, future sea level rises, alterations in storm patterns, and higher storm surges could have significant effects. About 46 million people are currently at risk by flooding in coastal areas as a result of storm surges. In the absence of measures to adapt, it is estimated that even with current populations a sea level rise of 50 cm would increase the number of people whose land would be at risk from serious flooding or permanent inundation to about 92 million, while a 100 cm rise would increase this number to 118 million.

As the IPCC report also shows, climate change is likely to affect numerous other human activities and resources valued by humans such as river flow and water supply, transportation systems, energy demand and supply, human settlement patterns, and tourism. These impacts are the topics of research. For example, a range of studies has looked at impacts on energy supply and demand from an economic perspective and these studies are reviewed by the IPCC. Multisectoral regional assessments of the consequences of climate change have also been carried out).

The methods for assessing climate impacts have developed considerably since around 1970. As Parry and Carter (1998) point out, the efforts up until the mid-1970s focused mainly on the (one-way) ‘impact’ of climate on human activity, while more recently there has been more emphasis on the ‘interaction’ between climate and human activity by assuming that a climatic event is merely one of many processes (both societal and environmental) that can affect humans and their activities. The interaction approach also introduced adaptation into climate impact assessment, such as changes in crops and irrigation at the farm level and policy responses at the subnational, national, and international levels (Parry and Carter 1998).

Until recently, most scientific assessments of global environmental risks devoted little attention to the possibly endangered entities. Now, questions about the ‘vulnerability’ of social and ecological systems are emerging as a central focus of policy-driven assessments of global environmental risks in a number of arenas.

4. Human Responses To Global Environmental Change

There are basically three possible responses to global environmental change. First, humans could decide to ‘do nothing,’ because they don’t believe scientific results, because they think that the changes will be gradual and easily accommodated through technology, or simply because they are convinced that it would cost more to do something than the benefits the environmental changes might bring. In doing nothing, they might find that they are forced to undertake responses, such as migration from flood-prone areas, in the event of global environmental changes (forced adaptation). Second, humans can choose to ‘mitigate,’ for example, reduce net emissions of greenhouse gases, acidifying substances or ozone-depleting substances into the atmosphere or reduce the rate of deforestation or land-cover change. Third, humans can choose to ‘adapt’ to global environmental change (anticipatory adaptation).

Humans have shown great capacity to adapt to environmental changes and extreme events in the past and the assessment of the research of past research on adaptation may provide useful insights for the future. However, adaptation in a globalized world with a population of 10 billion people promises to be much more challenging than adaptation in the past.

At the international level, steps to mitigate global environmental change have been taken in recent years. The Convention on Long-Range Transboundary Air Pollution (LRTAP) and its associated protocols have been dealing with emissions reductions of acidifying substances. The Vienna Convention on the Protection of the Stratospheric Ozone Layer and the Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer, signed in 1987 has led to the phase-out of production of most ozone-depleting substances. At the Rio Conference (UNCED) in 1992 the Framework Convention on Climate Change and the Convention on Biodiversity were signed and have subsequently gone into force with subsequent negotiations on protocols. Clearly, it is not enough to negotiate and sign international agreements to deal with the issues of global environmental change (Underdal 1998, Weiss and Jacobson 1998). Research on policy instruments at the national and international levels of relevance to the implementation of international environmental agreements shows the strengths and limitations of strategies such as regulation, financial incentives and penalties, inducements for technical development, etc. (US National Research Council 1999). Research at the end of the twentieth century and the beginning of the twenty-first century is also showing how social institutions have succeeded and failed in the management of global environmental risks (Ostrom 1990, Young 1999).

Methods for evaluating adaptive responses are discussed by Parry and Carter (1998), who point out that many of the adaptation options are likely to be subject to legislation, influenced by prevailing social norms related to religion or custom, or constrained physically or biologically. This might encourage, restrict, or totally prohibit their implementation. However, it is clear that an assessment of possible constraints must accompany any evaluation of available options. To date, relatively little analysis has been made of the efficacy of different adaptive strategies, partly because of the very wide range of available options.

On balance, however, it seems that much more attention has been paid to the assessment of mitigation options than to adaptation options. Serious study is still needed of the true costs of adaptation of both plants and people and the differential ability to undertake it.

A controversial topic related to the question of adaptation is the relation between global environmental change and migration. The IPCC report in 1990 suggested that the greatest effect of climate change may be on human migration, as millions of people could be displaced due to shoreline erosion, coastal flooding, and agricultural disruption. Lonergan (1998) attempted to clarify the numerous issues surrounding the linkage between environmental degradation and population displacement. He concluded that generalizations about the relationship between environmental degradation and population movement mask a great deal of the complexity, which characterizes migration decision-making. Environmental degradation and resource depletion may play a contributing role in affecting population movement, often filtered through contexts of poverty and inequity.

5. Attitudes, Behavior, And Lifestyle

While there is ample evidence that public concern about ecological problems and technological risks has increased in Western industrialized societies, as well as some other countries, since around 1980, at the same time there has been a continuing deterioration of the environment on a global scale with some dramatic regional consequences (Brand 1997). Data on the development of environmental consciousness have been and are collected in many countries, although they are difficult to compare especially because the results depend on the wording of questions and the cultural contexts within which surveys are made. As Brand (1997) documents, taken together the empirical findings point to a high, and globally growing, concern about the environment. However, a high degree of environmental consciousness does not necessarily mean that there is environmentally sound behavior. Unfortunately there are fewer comparative data on environmental behavior, and different national contexts make it difficult to make intercomparisons. Empirical findings show that the effects of environmental knowledge and consciousness on behavior are insignificant and that other factors have to be taken into account, i.e., psychological, economic, institutional, and contextual factors.

6. Integrated Assessment

An important contribution to research on the human dimensions of global environmental change has been provided by ‘integrated assessment.’ According to Parson (1995):

Assessment consists of gathering, synthesizing, interpreting, and communicating knowledge from various expert domains and disciplines, to help responsible policy actors think about problems or evaluate possible actions.

An ‘integrated’ assessment means that the information is assembled from a broader set of domains than would usually be provided by good research from a single discipline. Integrated assessment of global environmental change issues therefore requires knowledge from all relevant disciplines, natural and social sciences, and the assessment is building a bridge between the science and policy realms. Summaries of available results, for instance in the reports of the IPCC, have illustrated the strengths and weaknesses of available approaches. At the end of the twentieth century methodologies have been developed for ‘participatory integrated assessment,’ in which stakeholders and even lay citizens are involved in the assessment process (Kasemir et al. 1999).

7. Conclusion

There is no doubt that global environmental changes have occurred and are occurring. Social sciences are playing an increasingly important role in improving understanding of the human causes and impacts of, and responses to, such changes. In a recent report, the US National Research Council (1999) pointed to the following areas in which major advances in knowledge were achieved through human dimension research:

(a) The nature and role of socioeconomic uncertainties in impact assessments.

(b) The determinants of environmentally significant consumption.

(c) The importance of vulnerability analysis in understanding the consequences of global environmental change.

(d) The role of institutions in determining human– environment interactions.

(e) Estimation of the costs of global environmental change and of policy response options.

The challenges remain large, especially in the area of obtaining, archiving, and using socioeconomic data and in conducting research on a range of unresolved and difficult questions that can only be tackled by international, interdisciplinary approaches.

Bibliography:

1. Board on Sustainable Development 1999 Our Common Journey: A Transition Toward Sustainability. National Academy Press, Washington, DC
2. Brand K W 1997 Environmental consciousness and behaviour: The greening of lifestyles. In: Redclift M, Woodgate G (eds.) The International Handbook of Environmental Sociology. Edward Elgar, Cheltenham, UK
3. Douglas M, Gasper D, Ney S, Thompson M 1998 Human needs and wants. In: Rayner S, Malone E L (eds.) Human Choice and Climate Change. Battelle Press, Columbus, OH
4. Entwistle B, Rindfuss R R, Walsh S J 1998 Land use land cover and population dynamics, Nang Rong, Thailand. In: Liverman D M, Moran E F, Ruidfuss R R, Stern P C (eds.) People and Pixels: Linking Remote Sensing and Social Science. National Academy Press, Washington, DC
5. Gardner G T, Stern P C 1996 Environmental Problems and Human Behaviour. Allyn and Bacon, Boston
6. IGBP IHDP 1999 Land-Use and Land-Cover Change: Implementation Strategy. IHDP Report No 10. International Human Dimensions Programme on Global Environmental Change, Bonn, Germany
7. IHDP 1999a Institutional Dimensions of Global Environmental Change: Science Plan. IHDP Report No. 9. International Human Dimensions Programme on Global Environmental Change, Bonn, Germany
8. IHDP 1999b Global Environmental Change and Human Secutiry: Science Plan. IHDP Report No. 11. International Human Dimensions Programme on Global Environmental Change, Bonn, Germany
9. IHDP 1999c Industrial Transformation: Science Plan. IHDP Report No. 12. International Human Dimensions Programme on Global Environmental Change, Bonn, Germany
10. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 1990 Climate Change: The IPCC Scientific Assessment. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK
11. IPCC 1996 Second Assessment Report of the IPCC. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, 3 Vols.
12. Kasemir B, Schibli D, Stoll S, Jaeger C C 1999 Involving the public in climate and energy decisions. Environment 42(3): 32–42
13. Kasperson J X, Kasperson R E, Turner II B L (eds.) 1995 Regions at Risk: International Comparisons of Threatened Environments. UNU Press, Tokyo
14. Lonergan S 1998 The Role of Environmental Degradation in Population Displacement. Global Environmental Change and Human Security Project Research Report 1. IHDP, Bonn, Germany
15. MacKellar F L, Lutz W, McMichael A J, Suhrke A 1998 Population and climate change. In: Rayner S, Malone E L (eds.) Human Choice and Climate Change. Battelle Press, Columbus, OH
16. McMichael A J, Haines A, Sloof R, Kovats S 1996 Climate Change and Human Health. World Health Organisation, Geneva, Switzerland
17. Meyer W B, Adger W N, Brown K, Graetz D, Gleick P, Richards J F, Maghalaes A 1998 Land and water use. In: Rayner S, Malone E L (eds.) Human Choice and Climate Change. Battelle Press, Columbus, OH
18. Ostrom E 1990 Governing the Commons: The Evolution of Institutions for Collective Action. Cambridge University Press, New York
19. Parry M, Carter T 1998 Climate Impact and Adaptation Assessment: A Guide to the IPCC Approach. Earthscan, London, UK
20. Parson E A 1995 Integrated assessment and environmental policy making: In pursuit of usefulness. Energy Policy 23(4 5): 463–75
21. Soroos M S 1998 The thin blue line: Preserving the atmosphere as a global commons. Environment 40(2): 6–35
22. Turner B L, Clark W C, Kates R W, Richards J F, Mathews J T, Meyer W B 1990 The Earth as Transformed by Human Action: Global and Regional Changes in the Biosphere Over the past 300 years. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK
23. Underdal A (ed.) 1998 The Politics of International Environmental Management. Kluwer Dordrecht, The Netherlands
24. UNEP/WMO 1997 Common Questions About Climate Change.
25. United Nations Environment Programme, Nairobi, Kenya
26. US National Research Council 1998 Liverman D, Moran E F, Rindfuss R R, Stern P C (eds.) People and Pixels: Linking Remote Sensing and Social Science. National Academy Press, Washington, DC
27. US National Research Council 1999 Global Environmental Change: Research Pathways for the Next Decade. National Academy Press, Washington, DC
28. Weiss E B, Jacobson H (eds.) 1998 Engaging Countries: Strengthening Compliance with International Environmental Accords. MIT Press, Cambridge, MA
29. WMO 1999 Scientific Assessment of Ozone Depletion: 1998. WMO Global Ozone Research and Monitoring Project, Report No. 44. World Meteorological Organization, Geneva, Switzerland
30. Young O 1999 The Effectiveness of International Environmental Regimes: Causal Connections and Behavioural Mechanisms. MIT Press, Cambridge, MA