International Climate Policy Research Paper

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As early as the closing years of the nineteenth century natural scientists postulated that human activities, particularly burning fossil fuels, could lead to climate change, but it was only late in the twentieth century that the international community began to develop public policies to deal with climate change. The lag resulted from the necessity of developing scientiﬁc understanding and public awareness and the immense diﬃculty of crafting and implementing policies that would be eﬀective. The climate is a classic common good. Policies to deal with it must overcome all of the obstacles to providing common goods.

1. History

Svante Arrhenius, a Swedish chemist and Nobel laureate, ﬁrst put forth the theory that rising concentrations of carbon dioxide would lead to global warming in 1896. According to his calculations a doubling of carbon dioxide (CO ) in the atmosphere would result in an increase of 5 Celsius in global average surface temperatures (Arrhenius 1896). Arrhenius’s forecast was based on the concept of a greenhouse eﬀect, which was ﬁrst advanced by Jean-Baptiste Fourier in 1827. Fourier argued that the sun’s rays would enter the atmosphere, but not all of them would escape, thus warming the atmosphere. John Tyndall developed this idea by suggesting that particular atmospheric gases—water vapor and carbon dioxide—were responsible for the greenhouse eﬀect. Arrhenius’s contribution was to suggest that the strength of the greenhouse eﬀect would increase. His forecast, however, was largely ignored until the second half of the twentieth century. The dominant view was that the climate was essentially constant except for short-term ﬂuctuations.

Starting in the 1950s, scientists, nongovernmental organizations (NGOs), and eventually governments began to pay greater attention to the possibility of climate change. Scientiﬁc advances were important. Roger Revelle and Hans Suess of the Scripps Institute of Oceanography developed doubts about the ability of the oceans to absorb the amount of carbon dioxide that was being emitted (Revelle and Suess 1957). The belief that the oceans could absorb all of the carbon dioxide was a principal factor shaping the view that the climate was constant. The increasing availability of data was also important. In 1957 a station to measure atmospheric carbon dioxide was established at the Mauna Loa observatory in Hawaii. By the 1960s this station was reporting a steady increase in carbon dioxide concentrations in the atmosphere. In 1963 the US-based Conservation Foundation sponsored a meeting on climate issues. The report forecast that a doubling of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere would produce a 3.8 C temperature increase. In 1964–5, Roger Revelle chaired the Environmental Pollution Panel of the US President’s Science Advisory Committee. The panel concluded that projected increases in carbon dioxide concentrations in the atmosphere could produce changes in the climate (USA PSAC 1965).

Deepening concern with climate change stimulated research. Fourier, Tyndall, and Arrhenius had pro- vided the broad framework for this research. Models could be built using the framework. Testing the models would require collecting and assembling data. Lewis Frye Richardson, a British meteorologist, developed the ﬁrst numerical weather prediction system in the early years of the twentieth century (Richardson 1922). Although at the time the calculations required were too complex for his system to have any practical use, when computers were developed his system could be applied. It provided the basis for the development of General Circulation Models (GCMs) which simulate the global circulation of the atmosphere. GCMs are basic instruments for weather and climate prediction. To study the climate, GCMs must be coupled with other models, particularly of ocean circulation.

The Mauna Loa observatory continued to provide data documenting an increase of CO concentrations in the atmosphere. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) established the World Weather Watch (WWW) in 1968. WWW promotes standardized observations and the exchange of data. In 1967 WMO and the International Council of Scientiﬁc Unions (ICSU) launched the Global Atmospheric Research Program (GARP). GARP was an international re-search program that focused on the transient behavior of the atmosphere and the factors that determine statistical properties of the general circulation of the atmosphere. GARP culminated in a 12 months global experiment that began on 1 December 1978, in which the earth’s atmosphere and weather were observed and measured.

As scientiﬁc knowledge of the climate system increased, scientists issued ﬁrmer warnings about the possibility and dangers of climate change. In 1977 a US National Academy of Sciences panel that Roger Revelle chaired concluded that if the use of fossil fuels continued to increase at present rates, average global surface temperature could rise by about 6 C over the coming 200 years, with potentially ominous consequences for agriculture and ﬁshing (USA NAS 1977). Public and governmental concern mounted during the 1970s. The possibility of climate change and the eﬀects of this change were discussed at a series of UN-sponsored large-scale conferences on the human environment (1972), food (1974), water (1977), and desertiﬁcation (1977).

WMO initiated a program on the climate in 1974 and, together with the United Nations Environment Program (UNEP) and the International Council of Scientiﬁc Unions, convened the First World Climate Conference in Geneva, Switzerland in February 1979. The First World Climate Conference brought together experts who focused on the scientiﬁc aspects of climate change. Later in 1979, on the basis of the conference’s recommendation, WMO established the World Climate Programme (WCP). The WCP consists of the World Climate Research Program (which succeeded GARP), the World Climate Data and Monitoring Program, the World Climate Applications and Services Program, and the World Climate Impact Assessment and Response Strategies Program. The WCP fosters international research, coordinates data and monitoring activity, and facilitates access to information.

Stimulated by a sequence of abnormally hot years, concern about climate change grew stronger during the 1980s. Pressure grew for the adoption of international policies to mitigate climate change. WMO and UNEP sponsored a workshop of climate scientists on Developing Policies for Responding to Climatic Change’ in Villach, Austria and Bellagio, Italy in the fall of 1987. In their report on the workshop the scientists concluded that as a consequence of the emission of greenhouse gases (GHG) average global surface temperatures would increase at a rate of 0.3 C per decade. There would also be changes in precipitation and soil moisture and sea level rise. They called for a treaty to reduce GHG emissions (WMO 1987). In June 1988, the government of Canada organized an expert conference in Toronto on ‘The Changing Atmosphere: Implications for Global Security.’ The conference called for a reduction in deforestation and a 20 percent cut back in CO emissions from 1988 levels by 2005 with the eventual aim of a 50 percent cut back (WMO et al. 1988). Representatives in many national legislative bodies and other governmental oﬃcials called for action.

The Toronto conference brought out sharp diﬀerences between the USA and many other countries. These diﬀerences have surfaced regularly. Because the USA had the largest greenhouse gas emissions, and because of its place in the global economy and the strength of its scientiﬁc establishment, these diﬀerences have had a profound impact on the negotiations about the climate change regime.

In 1978 the National Climate Program Act (PL 95-367) established the United States National Climate Program Oﬃce in the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration which coordinated research eﬀorts on climate change throughout the federal government and US involvement in international programs. US national research eﬀorts were substantial and the USA played an important role in international research eﬀorts. The USA, however, was concerned about the costs of cutting GHG emissions (Brenton 1994, pp. 167–9, Rowlands 1995, pp. 74–6) and sought to organize a mechanism that would have broad legitimacy for obtaining objective scientiﬁc advice. The USA was an important leader in the decision in 1988 by the World Meteorological Organization and the United Nations Environment Program to create the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

IPCC is open to all members of WMO and UNEP. Its mandate is to assess scientiﬁc, technical, and socioeconomic information relevant to understanding the risk of human-induced climate change. It has three working groups and a task force. Working Group I assesses the scientiﬁc aspects of the climate system and climate change. Working Group II addresses the vulnerability of socioeconomic systems to climate change and options for adapting to it. Working Group III assesses options for mitigating climate change. The Task Force on National Greenhouse Inventories oversees the National Greenhouse Gas Inventories Program. The IPPC does not carry out research. It bases its assessments mainly on published and peer reviewed scientiﬁc literature. Governments appoint members of IPCC.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change issued its ﬁrst scientiﬁc assessment in 1990 (Houghton et al. 1990). The Second World Climate Conference was held later that year. The IPCC report and the Second World Climate Conference laid the scientiﬁc foundation for negotiations toward a treaty on climate change. The IPCC stated in its report that it was conﬁdent of the existence of a natural greenhouse eﬀect and that emissions resulting from human activities were substantially increasing the atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases. It speciﬁcally mentioned carbon dioxide, methane, chloroﬂuorocarbons, and nitrous oxide. Carbon dioxide, chloroﬂuorocarbons, and nitrous oxide are removed from the atmosphere only slowly. Their sources and sinks in the atmosphere, biosphere, and oceans determine their atmospheric lifetimes, which can last from decades to centuries. The IPCC concluded that global mean surface air temperature had increased by 0.3°C to 0.6°C over the past 100 years and the size of this increase was consistent with the predictions of climate models.

Greenhouse gas emissions are essentially a product of the number of people times the level of development. The energy intensity of development and the carbon intensity of energy use modify the eﬀects of the level of development. Under IPCC’s business-as-usual scenario, greenhouse gas emissions would increase following historically based trajectories. The IPCC predicted that the consequence of the increased con-centration of long-lived gases in the atmosphere would be an increase in the global mean surface temperature of about 0.3° Celsius per decade. This would result in an increase of about 1°C by 2025.

The IPCC report and the Second World Climate Conference, where the report was discussed and its conclusions reaﬃrmed, provoked concern and also made it obvious how complicated dealing with climate change would be. Governments responded with what in the history of international diplomacy must be regarded as alacrity. The ﬁrst session of the Inter-governmental Negotiating Committee for a Frame-work Convention on Climate Change was held in February 1991.

The goal was to have a treaty ready for signature at the United Nations Conference on Environment and Development, which was held in Rio de Janeiro in June 1992. The Rio Conference was an immense gathering (Brenton 1994, pp. 223–35). Representatives of 178 governments attended including 117 heads of state or government. More than 1,400 NGOs were represented and there were more than 35,000 accredited representatives. The deadline set by the date of the Rio Conference and the publicity associated with the conference put considerable pressure on governments.

Despite this pressure, the USA insisted that it would not sign a treaty that contained binding emissions limitations. Many NGOs and several governments wanted the treaty to include emission limitations. The US administration led by President George H. W. Bush did not believe that at that time the USA could fulﬁll a commitment to limit emissions, and it doubted the capacity of other countries to do so. Eventually the US position was accepted (Soroos 1997, pp.191–200), and in June 1992 154 states and the European Union (EU)—in legal terms the European Economic Community—signed the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). The treaty came into eﬀect in March 1994 after 50 states had become parties. As of mid-2000, there were 184 parties to the convention.

2. The United Nations Framework Convention On Climate Change

The UNFCCC is one of the most far-reaching treaties ever negotiated. Since greenhouse gas emissions are the result of so many aspects of modern life, becoming a party to the treaty commits states to subjecting almost all aspects of their economic activities to some form of international scrutiny and supervision. The legal instruments that will be negotiated under the UNFCCC will have profound impacts on national economies.

The objective of the treaty is ‘… stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system’ (Article 2). Greenhouse gases are deﬁned as ‘gaseous constituents of the atmosphere, both natural and anthropogenic, that absorb and re-emit infrared radiation.’ In its ﬁrst scientiﬁc assessment IPCC concluded that during the decade from 1980 to 1990 carbon dioxide had contributed 55 percent of the greenhouse gases to the change in radiative forcing, chloroﬂuorocarbons 24 percent, methane 15 percent, and nitrous oxide, 6 percent. Carbon dioxide emissions result primarily from fossil fuel combustion and land use and land use changes. Agriculture contributes a large share of methane and nitrous oxide emissions.

The production and use of chloroﬂuorocarbons were controlled under the 1985 Vienna Convention for the Protection of the Ozone Layer and the 1987 Montreal Protocol on Substances that deplete the Ozone Layer and subsequent amendments. These accords phase out the production and use of chloroﬂuorocarbons.

The ﬁrst principle of the UNFCCC is that ‘The Parties should protect the climate system for the beneﬁt of present and future generations of human-kind, on the basis of equity and in accordance with their common but diﬀerentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities’ (Article 3). Other principles include exhorting the parties to give special consideration for developing countries, take ‘precautionary measures,’ promote sustainable development, and promote a ‘supportive and open international economic system.’

All parties to the treaty undertake commitments (Article 4) to meet the treaty’s objective. Though these commitments are stated in general terms in the framework convention, they are to be made more speciﬁc through additional legal instruments negotiated later. The UNFCCC deﬁnes various categories of countries and establishes diﬀerential responsibilities for them. There are three categories of parties to the treaty: developed countries, developed countries with special ﬁnancial responsibilities, and developing countries.

Developed countries, or Annex I countries, are exhorted to take ‘immediate action’ to limit green-house gas emissions. Annex I includes 38 states, of which 13 were Eastern Europe states in transition to democracy and market economies, and the European Union (in formal legal terms the European Community). Article 4, paragraph 2, explicitly requires Annex I countries ‘to adopt national policies and take corresponding measures on the mitigation of climate change’ by limiting their anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases. The Article further requires them to report on the steps that they take with the aim of ‘returning individually or jointly to their 1990 levels these anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases not controlled by the Montreal Protocol.’

The countries that are listed in Annex II of the UNFCCC are required ‘to provide new and additional ﬁnancial resources to meet the full agreed costs incurred by developing country Parties in complying with their obligations’ to produce national inventories of their ‘emissions by sources and removals by sinks of all greenhouse gases not controlled by the Montreal Protocol.’ They also have responsibilities for pro-viding ﬁnancial assistance to the developing countries for other agreed tasks (Article 4, paragraph 3). Annex II includes Annex I countries except those in transition to democracy and market economies.

The requirements for developing countries are more modest. They are speciﬁcally required to submit their inventories to the UNFCCC secretariat. Beyond that they are exhorted to adopt policies and take measures to mitigate climate change and adapt to it.

3. The Kyoto Protocol

The process of negotiating legal instruments under the UNFCCC was launched at the ﬁrst Conference of the Parties (COP-1) in Berlin in 1995. The IPCC published its second assessment report in 1996 (Houghton et al. 1996, Watson et al. 1996, Bruce et al. 1996). The report conﬁrmed that climate change was occurring because of human actions and analyzed the impacts of climate change and the measures that could be taken to adapt to and mitigate climate change. The report provided a strong stimulus for further action.

An initial agreement to establish legally binding quantiﬁed emissions limitations and reduction commitments was reached at COP-3 in Kyoto, Japan on 10 December 1997. Article 3, paragraph 1 of the Kyoto Protocol would require Annex I countries collectively to reduce their overall greenhouse gas emissions ‘by at least ﬁve percent below their 1990 levels in the commitment period 2008 to 2012.’ Speciﬁcally the Kyoto Protocol required the USA to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions to 93 percent of the 1990 levels, Japan to 94 percent, and the European Economic Community to 92 percent. Norway, on the other hand, is allowed to increase its emissions to 101 percent of the 1990 level, Australia to 108 percent, and Iceland to 110 percent. The European Community’s obligation applied to the Community as a whole. Under arrangements made within the EU some countries, especially Germany and the UK, which had the largest emissions, agreed to reduce their emissions more than 8 percent below the 1990 levels, which would allow others, such as Greece and Portugal, to increase their emissions above the 1990 levels. Greece would be allowed to increase its emissions by 25 percent and Portugal by 27 percent.

The Kyoto Protocol covered six greenhouse gases that were not covered by the Montreal Protocol: carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, hydroﬂuoro-carbons, perﬂuorcarbons, and sulphur hexaﬂouride. The limitations apply to ‘net changes in greenhouse gas emissions by sources and removals by sinks resulting from direct human-induced land-use changes and forestry activities, limited to aﬀorestation, re-forestation and deforestation since 1990, measured as veriﬁable changes in carbon stocks in each commitment period’ (Article 3, paragraph 3). The emissions from the other ﬁve greenhouse gases that were covered in the protocol were measured in terms of their carbon dioxide equivalents calculated in terms of global warming potential. The methodologies for measuring emissions and calculating global warming potential were those developed by the IPCC.

The Kyoto Protocol included three ﬂexible mechanisms. One was emission trading. Annex I countries would be able to trade emission allowances. For instance, if a party had diﬃculty meeting its required limitations, it would be able to purchase emission allowances from another party that had emissions that were lower than its limitation. Joint Implementation among Annex I countries was another ﬂexible mechanism. If a party engaged in a project to increase the sinks on another party’s territory through reforestation the two parties could share the credit for the increased sinks. The third ﬂexible mechanism was the Clean Development Mechanism. Annex I countries could engage in projects in non-Annex I countries that reduced prospective emissions and share the credit for this. The US government and many economists argued that these ﬂexible mechanisms would make it possible to limit emissions at the least possible cost. The US administration of President William J. Clinton argued that the USA could only meet its commitment in the Kyoto Protocol if it were allowed to use ﬂexible mechanisms.

How well these ﬂexible mechanisms would work was unknown. Emission trading mechanisms were included in US domestic legislation and the 1979 Convention on Long Range Transboundary Air Pollution. Various pilot projects have been undertaken. Whatever the fate of the Kyoto Protocol, ﬂexible mechanisms in some form will likely be part of the climate change regime. Flexible mechanisms will put heavy demands on the capacity of UNFCCC organs and the parties to the convention.

The Kyoto Protocol did not include requirements that specify policies and measures that parties must adopt, although it could have under the terms of the UNFCCC. It did not require that countries impose a carbon tax or ensure that appliances or automobiles meet eﬃciency standards. Many European states argued that any eﬀort to limit greenhouse gas emissions should require uniform policies and measures. Some US economists also made this argument. The US government preferred that international accords state obligations and that parties should be free to adopt whatever policies and measures they choose to meet their obligations. Policies and measures— whether they are uniform or country-speciﬁc—will inevitably be part of the climate change regime. They will also place heavy demands on the capacity of countries that are parties to the UNFCCC.

Of the Annex I countries in the late 1990s only Austria, Germany, Luxembourg, the UK, and the Eastern European countries in transition to democracy and market economies had emissions below 1990 levels (Grubb et al. 1999, p. 82). The UK’s emissions fell because of its transition from coal to natural gas and Germany’s because of the collapse of East German industries. Industries had also collapsed in the countries in transition.

As of January 2000 84 countries had signed the Kyoto Protocol and 22 had ratiﬁed it. None of the Annex 1 countries had ratiﬁed the Kyoto Protocol. Prior to COP III the US Senate adopted a resolution by a vote of 95 to 0 stating that the USA would not agree to a treaty limiting emissions unless limitations also applied to developing countries. After COP III adopted the Kyoto Protocol, Senators from both parties stated that the protocol was not ratiﬁable. Senators and representatives of industry and labor argued that unless developing countries were included in the emission limitation requirement, developing countries would have an economic advantage. Some argued that industry would move from developed to developing countries.

Without US ratiﬁcation, it would be diﬃcult for the Kyoto Protocol to come into eﬀect. To come into eﬀect 55 states, which together accounted for 55 percent of the 1990 carbon dioxide emissions of Annex I countries, must have become parties to the protocol (Article 25). US emissions accounted for more than a third of the 1990 totals for Annex I countries.

Several factors contributed to the diﬀerences be-tween the USA and other countries and to the US reluctance to accept the Kyoto Protocol. Under the US legal system, individual citizens or NGOs can sue the government to force it to comply with an international treaty to which the USA is a party. The USA does not ratify treaties unless the government is conﬁdent that it can comply. Other states have diﬀerent legal systems where suing the government is much more diﬃcult. For other states becoming a party to a treaty is frequently a statement of intention to try to comply. The size and climate of the USA are factors in the US propensity to consume energy. More compact countries with milder climates have more modest energy requirements. Unlike many developed countries, the US population was growing in the late twentieth century and was projected to continue to grow, leading to increased demands for energy and other products that would increase greenhouse gas emissions. At least partly because the USA was a petroleum producer, the US public was addicted to inexpensive energy. Eﬀorts to increase energy prices regularly produced political outcries.

If the Kyoto Protocol did not come into eﬀect, a new agreement would have to be negotiated. If the protocol did enter into force, it would require that additional limitations should be negotiated for sub-sequent periods—that is, those after 2008–2012—and that these negotiations should begin no later than 2005 (Article 3, paragraph 9). Eventually a global bargain will have to be struck involving all parties, both developed and developing countries. The process of negotiating instruments to implement the UNFCCC will be long-lasting.

Bringing developing countries into the climate change regime will be essential but extraordinarily diﬃcult to achieve. Developing countries accounted for slightly more than 30 percent of greenhouse gas emissions in 1990, and their emissions were growing rapidly. As of 2000 developing countries accounted for just fewer than 80 percent of the world’s population. Future population growth was projected to occur primarily in developing countries. Developing country governments desire rapid economic growth. Population and economic growth will increase developing country greenhouse gas emissions. Developing countries will become the dominant source of green-house gas emissions in the twenty-ﬁrst century.

Developing countries are also extremely vulnerable to climate change. The small island states could be submerged by sea-level rise. Sea-level rise could threaten coastal zones where developing country populations are often concentrated. Countries that are heavily dependent on agricultural production could suﬀer greatly from climate change. Petroleum-producing countries could see their incomes cut if petroleum consumption were to decrease.

Promoting economic growth is arguably one of the most eﬀective steps developing countries could take to deal with climate change. The more developed it is, the more resources a country has to devote to limiting greenhouse gas emissions. Developed countries also can adapt more easily to climate change. Developing countries would never agree to limit their economic growth. To become eﬀective the climate change regime will have to ﬁnd ways to promote sustainable development.

4. Issues

The climate is a classic common good. Human action anywhere aﬀects the climate and humans everywhere are aﬀected by the climate. Mitigating climate change will require the combined eﬀorts of governments and—in response to government policies—of individuals throughout the world. Article 4 of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change requires that these eﬀorts be based on equity. This acknowledges the common good character of the climate. Parties to the UNFCCC will only act if they feel that the burdens of dealing with climate change are borne equitably. The treaty embodies one concept of equity. The special requirements placed on Annex I and Annex II countries recognize their relative wealth and the fact that because of their historical lead in industrializing they have contributed more to current concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. The resolution adopted by the US Senate reﬂects another concept of equity, the necessity of all states taking at least some action particularly in view of the growing share of greenhouse gases emitted by non-Annex I countries. These diﬀerent concepts of equity will have to be reconciled for eﬀective action to be taken.

Knowledge is a second issue. Decades of work have greatly improved the natural science of climate change. Climate change models have become more sophisticated and the amount of data has increased. There are roughly two dozen large-scale models that are used in this work. They produce somewhat diﬀerent results, particularly with respect to forecasts of regional impacts, but the range of diﬀerences with respect to the global average mean surface temperature is not diﬀerent from the range that has existed since the beginning of the twentieth century. Even though work on the economic and social dimensions of climate change started later substantial progress has been made. Sophisticated models have been developed to estimate future emissions of greenhouse gases and the costs of mitigation strategies (Nordhaus 1994, Watson et al. 1996, pp. 263–396).

Estimates produced by these models vary because they are sensitive to assumptions about appropriate model structure and demographic and economic growth and the availability of demand (energy eﬃciency) and supply-side (alternative sources of supply) energy options. Research has produced better understanding of the mechanisms that promote compliance with international accords. Despite this progress in the natural and social sciences much remained to be done, especially concerning the economic and social dimensions. Eﬀorts to adapt to and mitigate climate change will require modifying human behavior. Under-standing how to promote appropriate modiﬁcations in behavior is a crucial issue for research.

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